3 LUCKY LION

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Ahlberg agrees the €16.4 million valuation is attractive, with a deferred consideration of around €10.4 million that reduces the immediate cash burden.

Corfai Capital Managing Partner and Founder Ben Robinson is even more bullish on the price, pointing to the circumstances in which GiG was able to acquire the business.

“On the numbers GiG has disclosed it looks cheap,” he says. “€16.4 million for 80% implies an EV of €20.5 million against roughly $50 million of run-rate NGR, 30% year-on-year growth and positive cash generation. €6m of cash on day one for a business generating $50 million of NGR tells you who needed the deal.”

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The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.

The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.

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One of the main concerns is Bill 560/2025, which is currently making its way through the council. The proposal prohibits advertising by betting companies at events in the city of São Paulo. This applies to events organised by public or private entities, whether for-profit or non-profit.

The bill prohibits signs, banners, or display panels in arenas, gymnasiums, stadiums and other sports event venues. It also bans advertising on public transport, such as the side panel, exterior or the rear window of buses. The bill imposes a fine of BRL50,000 ($10,000) and a ban on hosting events for up to two years.

The proposal does not explicitly prohibit the display of betting brands on team jerseys, but some city councillors want to include this in the bill.