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About Excalibur
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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In May, an investigation under the title “Operation Turbo” charged an Auckland man on eight counts under the Gambling Act.
The man was charged in connection with two illegal poker venues allegedly operating in central Auckland.
The DIA’s crackdown on land-based gambling in New Zealand is occurring alongside the liberalisation of the online sector, with the market set to launch in 2027.
What is Excalibur?
Research from Stanford University published in April concluded that sports bettors remain “overoptimistic,” generally expecting to break even despite losing an average of 7.5 cents on every dollar wagered.
“Overoptimism is largest among bettors who partake in a complex type of bet known as a parlay,” the Stanford researchers wrote. “Compared to other forms of betting, parlays are more likely to be driven by bias.”
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