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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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In Q1 2025, the group reported double-digit digital growth, thanks to strong UK, Brazil and US online performances. The period marked Stella David’s first quarter in the full-time group CEO role.
David, at the time, said she was “optimistic but prudent” about Entain’s Q1 performance.
Numbers have remained steady a year on, and in H1 this year, various markets were hailed as core growth drivers for the business, including Australia, New Zealand, Spain and the UK.
